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Supreme Novice Hurdle
Tuesday 10th march 2009
This
years renewal looks as wide open as last year (see below). At present fighting
out the head of the market, is the already impressive
COUSIN VINNY and HURRICANE FLY
with the latter probably just edging it overall, in part down to his victory
over COUSIN VINNY in Novermber at Fairyhouse. Both trained by Willie Mullins he
apparently holds the strongest hand in the race with the pair heading the market
at anything from 7/2 - 5/1 at the time of writing. From there, the shift is out
to 16/1 and bigger and a whole host of other potential stars. Maybe one or two
can emerge from this pack to throw down a serious challenge to the leading
lights. Nick Giffords DEE EE WILLIAMS has
done little wrong in his campaign this winter thus far, but would not want it
too slow on the day at Cheltenham, but does have that all important course form,
but MEDERMIT did cause a bit of an upset in
December when short heading him at Ascot, it will be interesting to see how he
handles the long run in and uphill finish here, having experienced the
idiosyncrasies of Exeter on his debut when running into the easy winner MAHONIA.
Nicky Hendersons MAD MAX was much talked up
for his bumpers last term, and he didn't disappoint winning both, before
reappearing this term with a winning debut over fences when very short 2/5
favourite. He beat Alan Kings KARABAK that
day and both are available around the 20/1 mark now. More Irish challengers in
ZAARITO, Colm Murphy won this race in 2004
with BRAVE INCA, and would love to keep up the Irish Tradition in this race
which has seen the trophy cross the Irish sea on no fewer than seven running's
in the last ten. Like Cousin Vinny a run in the Champion Bumper last term (3rd)
gives him course experience, and he was not far behind the winner 4 lengths
separating the pair. The race had three winning favs in a row, culminating in BRAVE
INCAS 2004 victory at 7/2f, he was preceded by Like-A-Butterfly in 2002 and Back
in Front in between, 7/4 and 3/1 respectively. Since then of course last years
victor was a modest 17/2, after Ebazyian scored at huge 40/1 odds for the Irish,
to get 2007 off to a flying start and to ensure the Guinness was flowing all
week long. SO what the chances of something bigger in the market at this stage?
Well DONNAS PALM is interesting, a
disappointing run behind HURRICANE FLY at Leopardstown the day after Boxing Day
when not unfancied at 5/2, the gelding trailed in a long last although did make
a bad mistake at the last and was not ridden in from there. He looks to have
been lengthened with some firms from that and whilst some will go as short as
14's at the mo, others are offering 33/1. Personally I shall be leaving it
another week or two before deciding if this is a race for an Ante Post punt.
(MOB)

2008 Result
This was a fairly open race last year and as such we advised 2
bets on the race both EW with Snap Tie and Kalahari King. Captain Cee Bee
overcome on of my biggest trend pointers by appearing for the first time since
November to come out and win the race. Binocular looked for the world like the
winner when hitting the front but Choc Thornton edged that bit extra from his
mount to come up the hill the stronger and score.
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