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Supreme Novice Hurdle

Tuesday 10th march 2009

This years renewal looks as wide open as last year (see below). At present fighting out the head of the market, is the already impressive COUSIN VINNY and HURRICANE FLY with the latter probably just edging it overall, in part down to his victory over COUSIN VINNY in Novermber at Fairyhouse. Both trained by Willie Mullins he apparently holds the strongest hand in the race with the pair heading the market at anything from 7/2 - 5/1 at the time of writing. From there, the shift is out to 16/1 and bigger and a whole host of other potential stars. Maybe one or two can emerge from this pack to throw down a serious challenge to the leading lights. Nick Giffords DEE EE WILLIAMS has done little wrong in his campaign this winter thus far, but would not want it too slow on the day at Cheltenham, but does have that all important course form, but MEDERMIT did cause a bit of an upset in December when short heading him at Ascot, it will be interesting to see how he handles the long run in and uphill finish here, having experienced the idiosyncrasies of Exeter on his debut when running into the easy winner MAHONIA. Nicky Hendersons MAD MAX was much talked up for his bumpers last term, and he didn't disappoint winning both, before reappearing this term with a winning debut over fences when very short 2/5 favourite. He beat Alan Kings KARABAK that day and both are available around the 20/1 mark now. More Irish challengers in ZAARITO, Colm Murphy won this race in 2004 with BRAVE INCA, and would love to keep up the Irish Tradition in this race which has seen the trophy cross the Irish sea on no fewer than seven running's in the last ten. Like Cousin Vinny a run in the Champion Bumper last term (3rd) gives him course experience, and he was not far behind the winner 4 lengths separating the pair. The race had three winning favs in a row, culminating inBRAVE INCAS 2004 victory at 7/2f, he was preceded by Like-A-Butterfly in 2002 and Back in Front in between, 7/4 and 3/1 respectively. Since then of course last years victor was a modest 17/2, after Ebazyian scored at huge 40/1 odds for the Irish, to get 2007 off to a flying start and to ensure the Guinness was flowing all week long. SO what the chances of something bigger in the market at this stage? Well DONNAS PALM is interesting, a disappointing run behind HURRICANE FLY at Leopardstown the day after Boxing Day when not unfancied at 5/2, the gelding trailed in a long last although did make a bad mistake at the last and was not ridden in from there. He looks to have been lengthened with some firms from that and whilst some will go as short as 14's at the mo, others are offering 33/1. Personally I shall be leaving it another week or two before deciding if this is a race for an Ante Post punt. (MOB)

2008 Result

1   Captain Cee Bee (IRE) SP 17/2 
 
7 11-7  Edward P Harty
Robert Thornton
    In touch 3rd, pushed along 4th, driven and stayed on to chase leaders 3 out, challenged after 2 out, kept on under pressure to lead final 110yds, driven out
 
2 2 Binocular (FR) SP 8/1C
 
4 10-13  N J Henderson
A P McCoy
    In touch, tracked leaders 4th, challenged 2 out, slight lead soon after and still just ahead last, headed final 110yds but kept on well for 2nd
 
3 Snap Tie (IRE) SP 20/1
 
6 11-7  P J Hobbs
Richard Johnson
    Towards rear, headway from 3rd, chased leaders and hit 4 out, pushed left 2 out, stayed on to challenge last and mistake, stayed on same pace
 
4 5 Kalahari King (FR) SP 40/1
 
7 11-7  Ferdy Murphy
Tony Dobbin
 

This was a fairly open race last year and as such we advised 2 bets on the race both EW with Snap Tie and Kalahari King. Captain Cee Bee overcome on of my biggest trend pointers by appearing for the first time since November to come out and win the race. Binocular looked for the world like the winner when hitting the front but Choc Thornton edged that bit extra from his mount to come up the hill the stronger and score.

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Last modified: 07/29/10